Pontential ES pullback target

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Opportunities

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TICK in post QEII rally

not much selling pressure.

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ES post QEII

Short term target is reached;
upside target is still ahead.
Buying breakout only makes a scalp.

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HFT goes to mainstream

HFT coverage on CBS 60minutes 10/10

Oct 15 e-mini

bull flag, followed by trend line break sharp move up, followed by test the low, market should have more up to go, 1175+.

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Wheat and Oats

Wheat will make new high.
Oats goes to 4.

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EURUSD

Open short at 1.2726, stop is at 1.2788.

Sep Future Spead Watch List

Buy Feb 11 Live Cattle / Sell Dec 10 Live Cattle
Buy Dec 10 Soybean Meal / Sell July 11 Soybean Cattle
Buy Feb 11 Lean Hogs / Sell Dec 10 Lean Hogs

Buy Jan 11 Soybean Meal / Sell May 11 Soybean Meal
Buy May 11 Sugar / Sell Sep 11 Sugar
Buy Sep 11 Cocoa / Sell May 11 Cocoa

08/27/2010 US Prelim GDP

8:30am (NY Time) US Prelim GDP Forecast 1.5% Previous 2.4%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 1.8% SELL 1.2%

There are talks of an even worse release than the already deeply discounted forecast of 1.5%.

1. Better GDP = Risk Appetite: JPY should lose strength immediately, making all JPY pairs move up (GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, USD/JPY, AUD/JPY), and expect to see USD remaining strong against other majors.
2. Worse GDP = Risk Aversion: JPY should gain strength immediately, dragging down the USD/JPY pair. USD should also be weak across the board. If the GDP release drops down significantly, we could see flight for safety movement in the market as USD could actually gain strength on the back of demands for US treasuries. This would be an extreme case if GDP misses expectation by a huge deviation such as 1% or more.

I think we may actually see some reversal in risk aversion sentiment after this release as speculators will be doing the typical "buy on rumor, sell on news". On this matter, long EUR/USD.