EURUSD

Open short at 1.2726, stop is at 1.2788.

Sep Future Spead Watch List

Buy Feb 11 Live Cattle / Sell Dec 10 Live Cattle
Buy Dec 10 Soybean Meal / Sell July 11 Soybean Cattle
Buy Feb 11 Lean Hogs / Sell Dec 10 Lean Hogs

Buy Jan 11 Soybean Meal / Sell May 11 Soybean Meal
Buy May 11 Sugar / Sell Sep 11 Sugar
Buy Sep 11 Cocoa / Sell May 11 Cocoa

08/27/2010 US Prelim GDP

8:30am (NY Time) US Prelim GDP Forecast 1.5% Previous 2.4%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 1.8% SELL 1.2%

There are talks of an even worse release than the already deeply discounted forecast of 1.5%.

1. Better GDP = Risk Appetite: JPY should lose strength immediately, making all JPY pairs move up (GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, USD/JPY, AUD/JPY), and expect to see USD remaining strong against other majors.
2. Worse GDP = Risk Aversion: JPY should gain strength immediately, dragging down the USD/JPY pair. USD should also be weak across the board. If the GDP release drops down significantly, we could see flight for safety movement in the market as USD could actually gain strength on the back of demands for US treasuries. This would be an extreme case if GDP misses expectation by a huge deviation such as 1% or more.

I think we may actually see some reversal in risk aversion sentiment after this release as speculators will be doing the typical "buy on rumor, sell on news". On this matter, long EUR/USD.

EURUSD

It should test the breakout area and the channel starting area, which is 1.2450-1.2500.
Spike and channel.

From misc

ES 08/12

If ES is traded above 1083.25, that's failed wedge, potential target is 1088+.

From misc

Rice

It is in the process for potential buy setup.

From misc

Corn

It filled the long time gap, Fib extension target is also in the area.
Wheat daily chart shows huge reversal bar.

From misc

EURJPY

The first upside EURJPY target is around 114.5-114.6.

From misc

Rice

Worth paying attention.

From misc